ICM in Poker

An Independent chip model, or Poker ICM, is a mathematical calculation through which you can give your tournament chips a monetary value for their equity. This value is usually based on the remaining prize pool.

The concept can be tricky for newcomers; even professional players take time to understand it. Hence, we have curated this article for everyone. Be it the meaning, its importance, or how you can strategise your game based on ICM, everything will be covered.

What is ICM in Poker?

An ICM (Independent Chip Model) calculation assesses the odds associated with every possible combination of finishing positions among the players. This mathematical model helps calculate the value of chips in a tournament. It is useful when payouts are top-heavy, or players are approaching the bubble or final table.

Objective

With ICM, you can find the value of your opponents' chip stack in a poker tournament.

In a cash game, the value of each chip is directly proportional to its face value. If you have ₹100 in chips, that is precisely what they are worth. However, the value of chips changes as a tournament progresses. This happens because the goal in a tournament is not just to accumulate chips. The player has to survive longer than opponents and secure a larger share of the prize pool.

Why ICM Poker is important

ICM poker is important because the value of chips in cash games differs from that in tournaments. In cash games, ₹1 chip is worth ₹1  at the table, where the chip values in tournaments fluctuate. Let’s understand this with an example:

Let’s say you are playing a ₹10,000 SNG with ten players. The prize pool will be ₹1,00,000. Let’s say every player starts with 100 chips; the value of chips would ₹100 (₹10,000 ÷ 100 chips).

Let’s divide the payouts: 1st place will get ₹50,000, 2nd place will get ₹30,000, and 3rd place will get ₹20,000.

Situation 1: Now, let’s make the game more exciting. Five players are left, and everyone has 200 chips; five players have been eliminated. Now, what will the value of chips be? It’s still ₹100. Each player has ₹20,000 in equity; since each player has 200 chips, the value will be ₹100.

Situation 2: Player A wins and gets all the 1,000 chips; now, what is the value of player A’s stack? It’s ₹50. The value of 1,000 chips equals ₹50,000 (The price of 1st place). Hence, ₹50,000 ÷ 1,000 chips = ₹50 per chip.

The above example clearly distinguishes between a cash game and a tournament. You can calculate these chip values using the ICM calculator. Just input data, and you will get your desired result.

How does ICM work in poker?

ICM considers two factors: the payout structure and the stack size of the remaining players. The tool combines these two factors and allocates a single value to players. Based on the chip stack, ICM determines the probability of each player finishing 1st, 2nd, and so on. It then multiplies the probability with the payouts of each position.

Why Does ICM Exist Only in Tournaments?

The reason is simple: in cash games, the value of chips is equivalent to the number of chips. This means ₹100 is worth ₹100.

In the tournament, you win a percentage of the prize pool even if you win all the chips. The chip values are calculated based on the payout structure and the stack size.

How to run ICM calculations?

You need to know the following:

• The number of players remaining in the tournament.
• The prize pool distribution (how much each place pays).
• The chip counts of each player.

Assign Chip Values

Use the ICM formula to assign a value to each player's chip stack. The formula varies slightly depending on whether the tournament is hand-for-hand or at the final table. The basic formula is:

Player’s Chip Value

= Player’s Chip Count/Total Chips in Play × Prize Pool

Calculate ICM Equity

You can determine each player's ICM (how much they can expect to win from the available prize pool). Calculators are available online that can help you find the right figure.

Decision Making

Use the calculated ICM equity to make strategic decisions in the tournament. If the ICM is higher than the present chip EV (expected value) in a particular situation, you might choose a more conservative line to preserve your equity.

ICM Example

You are on a multi-table poker tournament table, with 100 players remaining.

• Only the top 15 players will get paid.
• The total prize pool is ₹10,000.

The first-place finisher will receive ₹3,000, second place will get ₹2,000, and so on, decreasing payouts to ₹100 for 15th place.

You have the 3rd largest chip stack on the table. There are 20 players left. The bubble is approaching.

Here are the ICM considerations in this situation -

• Your chip stack is massive but not dominant. You have 300,000 chips, while the chip leader has 400,000. The shortest stack on the table has 50,000.
• With 20 players remaining on the table, no one has secured a payout yet. It starts from ₹3,000 for first place down to ₹100 for 15th place.
• On the bubble, the pressure is on to survive and secure a payout. If you bust before the bubble bursts, you will walk away with nothing.

What does ICM do in this situation?

• ICM might recommend that you play cautiously if you are in hand against opponents with smaller stacks. You might think of accumulating more chips by playing aggressively, but ICM will foresee the risk of busting out before reaching the money.
• If you call an all-in bet from a shorter stack with a marginal hand, ICM might lead you to fold.
• If you are in hand against one of the larger stacks and have a strong hand, it might be recommended that you play aggressively to increase your chip stack as the bubble approaches.

Limitations of ICM

While ICM is a valuable tool, it does have its limitations. Here are some of the key ones -

• The ICM assumes that each player's probability of winning a tournament is independent of other players' chip stacks. Players' strategies are influenced by their opponents' actions and chip stacks. This makes the ICM less accurate in situations where players are actively competing against each other.
• The ICM doesn't consider player skill levels, hand ranges, and position. Ignoring these factors can lead to inaccurate predictions of equity in real-world situations.
• The ICM assumes that the value of each chip is linear, meaning that doubling your stack will always double your equity. In practice, the value of chips can vary depending on factors such as stack sizes, blind levels, and payout structures.
• The ICM is designed for tournament situations, where players compete for a fixed prize pool. It is less applicable to cash games, where players can cash out their chips anytime.
• The accuracy of ICM calculations can be sensitive to the assumptions made, such as the distribution of chip stacks among players or the shape of the payout structure. Small changes in these assumptions can lead to major differences in calculated equities.
• Calculating equities can be computationally intensive, especially in situations with many players or non-linear payout structures. As a result, players often rely on simplified models or software tools to assist with calculations.

What's the difference between $EV and Chip EV?

Chip Ev is the number of chips you expect to get or lose from a game. The $EV is the monetary value equivalent of the chip EV. You try to rank as high as possible as you cannot convert your chips into money; the $Ev helps you answer ‘how much your action will cost you or how your action will affect your Ev and your ranking.’

Chip EV is purely about chips, whereas $EV translates those chips into real monetary value. Doubling your chips does not mean doubling your $EV.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does ICM mean in poker?

ICM stands for Independent Chip Model. This mathematical model assigns a player's chip stack value according to the tournament's prize pool and payout structure.

How do you calculate ICM in poker?

ICM is calculated using a formula considering a player's chip count, the total chips in play, and the prize distribution.

What is the ICM rule in poker?

The ‘ICM rule’ refers to using ICM calculations to make strategic decisions in poker tournaments. It suggests that players should consider their ICM equity when deciding whether to enter a pot or make other moves in a tournament.

What is ICM used for?

ICM assists players in making strategic choices during poker tournaments, especially when chip values fluctuate due to the tournament's payout arrangement. It aids players in identifying the most advantageous moves based on their chip stack and position at the table.

Conclusion

By understanding the principles of ICM, players can balance the risk of busting out of the tournament with the potential reward of increasing their equity. Most players familiar with ICM tend to push their boundaries in what they perceive as ICM situations. This can mean adopting an extremely cautious approach when low on chips or becoming overly aggressive when holding a big stack. It is crucial to recognize that ICM pressure is fluid and ever-evolving. There's no one-size-fits-all ICM strategy. Each situation demands a unique approach.